photo credit: Effigy Consulting


November 29, 2017


Our Partner, Effigy Consulting (, have recently completed a study of the European CEP market with the involvement of Last Mile Experts in panel reviews.

Here are some key findings:

• Whilst GDP grew by 1.9%, the European CEP market increased by 6.5% in valueand by 9.5% in volume, at a faster pace than in 2015. This can be explained by a more favourable economic environment and by the ever-expanding and growing e-commerce industry everywhere in Europe.

• The fastest growing segment is the International Extra EU one, due to the increase of Chinese imports (by more than 45%). This growth would be even stronger if Small Packets (light items carried through Mail products) were included.

• B2C continues to be the other most dynamic segment. Cross-border e-commerce is developing at a strong pace (B2C Intra EU Export grew by more than 10% in value and by more than15% in volume, faster in volume than Domestic B2C.

• The C2C market is being addressed by other players than the traditional Postal operators and carriers with a strong PUDO network are active on the C2B (Return) segment.

• The Top CEP markets in value, are Germany (24%), United Kingdom (20%), France (12%), Italy (8%), Spain (8%), Netherlands (5%) and Poland (3%), which together represent ~80% of the total market value.

The Top CEP markets in volume, are Germany (29%), United Kingdom (24%), France (9%), Spain (5%), Italy (4%), Poland (4%), Russia (4%) and the Netherlands (4%).

• The Major domestic and cross-border operators recorded above market growth in terms of revenue in 2015/2016: DHL Parcel, DPDgroup, GLS, Hermes, Poste Italiane Group, and Posten Group.

In terms of volume, DHL Parcel, DPDgroup, GLS, Hermes, Poste Italiane Group and PostNL recorded above market growths, primarily driven by the development of e-commerce. Overall, the Russian Post recorded the strongest growths, thanks to a strong B2C market, macroeconomic developments and imports from China.

• On the side of the operators, consolidation continues and the most important acquisitions of 2016 were the acquisition of TNT by FedEx (completed May 2016), GLS’s acquisition of ASM, and DP DHL’s acquisition of UK Mail.

The overall 2016 European CEP market* is estimated at:

• 53 billion Euro

• 9.6 billion parcels

This report is a great way to understand key trends and developments. What is interesting for me is China's continued (often "behind the scenes") work on developing effective European delivery solutions to Europe...will they really "take it all" in growth, soon? Less surprising is the the seemingly unstoppable growth of B2C. Both are great news for Last Mile stakeholders :) Any views?